Bailing while Sailing

All I can think of is a Popeye cartoon from my childhood: Popeye with one hand on the wheel and the other on a coffee can, arm windmilling, desperately tossing water off of the boat as it slowly goes under. There are no bailouts for the global climate system.

Reports today that carbon released from burning fossil fuels and cement production increased 2.9% in 2007 over 2006. Such growth is at the high end of the estimates from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for annual increases and could point to total global temperature increases of 11% by the end of the century. So-we are outside the worst case scenario.

This news comes as the first carbon cap and trade program in the United States, the 10 -state Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, held its first auction this week for carbon emissions permits. The RGGI program applies only to energy producers and will achieve modest 10% cuts in greenhouse gas emissions from that sector by 2018.

While RGGI is a start, and a good one, we must not lose sight of the critical components of an international climate program that are missing: Engagement with the developing economies and an urban policy that addresses the over 50% of climate emissions that are attributable to the built environment (homes and businesses).

The world's developing economies (and especially China and India) now account for 53% of total emissions. They are not covered by the Kyoto accord (which seems not to be working in any case).

Politically, as we are seeing today, the temptation is for quick fixes and bold moves. But we cannot bail out the global climate system with one national program. Rather, this will take real federal leadership to change the way we design and manage cities. Land use patterns are central to climate change. How we manage homes and commercial buildings are crucial to climate change. We need real incentives to change where we live, how we live and how we build. We need federal standards that require reductions in energy use and vehicle miles traveled, city by city, neighborhood by neighborhood, and then we need local innovation to get it done in a way that works well in each local context.